Super Bowl XLV (45) Pick, Predictions, Stats, Data, and Analysis


Super Bowl 45 will be Sunday February 6, 2011 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff game time listed as approximately 6:25PM ET with game coverage starting at 6PM on FOX.
Super Bowl 45 XLV: FOX Pre-Game 2PM ET, Game Center
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Below is the prediction for last years Super Bowl 44. You can purchase the prediction (in the same general format) for Super Bowl 45 via immediate download for $5 via: (link coming soon) Sports - First: Here is what our computer pick says.

 Date  Time (ET)  Fanbay  F.Spread   Game   Vegas  V.Spread  O/U(F)  O/U(V)  Comments 
Super Bowl XLIV (44)
Feb 76:25pmNO-0.7IND vs NOIND-5.550.756.5NO by the numbers.

Vegas has the Indianapolis Colts (16-2) favored by about 5 points (started at 6 and some are saying 4 1/2 now) over the New Orleans Saints (15-3). The Over/Under from Vegas is 56 1/2 (57 by some). Our computer is at 50.7. Based on numbers below it is likely to be really, really close to Vegas number.

Now for some deeper Analysis (since its the Super Bowl)

Here's where Vegas is at. And here's the match-up and CBS Sports and (Super Bowl 44) (Game Center).

Point by Point:
· This week Saints face Peyton. Favre is no Peyton.
· Peyton has a slew of good receivers. From Wayne and Collie to Garcon and TE Dallas Clark. How do you stop that?
· Saints are 2-1 in OT... in their last 7 games played!!
· Common Opponents: NO 6-0, IND 5-2 (played NYJ twice). Basically, Indy can claim both losses are due to resting starters. Still, Saints did better against mutual opponents, beating NE 38-17 vs 35-34 for example.

At the bottom of the page are a ton of extra stats. And here are past results from all previous Super Bowl's.

Analysis: The Sports computer model says Saints by 0.7 which means a lot since Vegas is giving them about 5 points.However, based on the charts below, it looks pretty solid that the Colts have the better chance to win this game. Likely by more than 6 points and probably by around 10 points. Eyeball guess (reading the charts below like stock charts) at a final score: Colts 33 Saints 24. Looking at the 1st half and 2nd half, both teams have been pretty slow in the 2nd half for the past several games. If there are points to be thrown on the board it is very, very likely to be a first half shoot-out as opposed to 2nd half.

As for the annual "eyeball" analysis of the charts.

First Half: The Colts are pretty reliable for 15-25 points in the first half. For the Saints it is much more of a guessing game. Their best chance at victory will be a surprising big first half. Eyeballing it, Colts put up 21 in the first half and the Saints about 15. 1st half: Colts 21-25.

2nd Half: As mentioned the 2nd half is more likely to be low scoring. And by our guess, particularly for the Saints. Saints will likely be held under 10 points in the 2nd half. Colts will probably be held around there too. It could be close in the 2nd half, like 12-9 Colts or so. We call 2nd half: Colts 12 Saints 9.

Overall: . Eyeball final score: Colts 33 Saints 24. As many times is the case, our computer favors the Saints which by that measure makes the Saints the better bet given the 5.5 point Vegas spread toward the Colts. However, the points charts below favor the Colts. And they say Colts should easily cover 5.5 points. Good luck. If nothing else, enjoy the game.

Charts -- use Internet Explorer

Season Game-by-game Total Points Scored for teams in Super Bowl 44: New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts.

Season Game-by-game Point Differentials for Super Bowl 44: Saints vs. Colts.

Season Game-by-game First Half Points Scored for Super Bowl 44: Saints vs. Colts.

Season Game-by-game Second Half Points Scored for Super Bowl 44: Saints vs. Colts.

Season Game-by-game First Half Differentials for Super Bowl 44: Saints vs. Colts.

Season Game-by-game Second Half Differentials for Super Bowl 44: Saints vs. Colts.

    Points Scored   Opp. Points   Points Diff   1st Half Pts   1st Half Opp  1st Half Diff  2nd Half Pts  2nd Half Opp  2nd Half Opp 

Team Schedules - Data Tables:
New Orleans Saints

Indianapolis Colts

*Note: Saints were 2-1 in OT games this season, winning by a field goal in both week 13 and vs Minnesota in the playoffs; and losing by a field goal in week 16 (these are not included in 2nd half differential data).

Use this link for a list of all previous Super Bowl winners and historical data.
Visit our NFL Stats page for links to all things football.

Last update: 2/1/10 (Thank you for visiting. Enjoy the game.)