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Top Ten for NFL 2008
Posted June 27, 2008
1. Around the NFL:
The 89th season in the history of the NFL (founded 1920) will begin Thursday night September 4 (Redskins at
Giants) (schedule here). The line-up of first Sunday games
is September 7th. And then Monday night there are 2 games on ESPN. First, the Vikings (Adrian Peterson) at
the (Favre-less) Packers at 7pm ET and then at 10:15 ET the Broncos at the Raiders (with QB JaMarcus
Russell taking over). There will be 2 regular season games outside the U.S. On October 26 it is back to
London (Saints-Chargers) and December 7th in Toronto, Canada (Bills-Dolphins)-- but the Canada game is not
without controversy (read here and here). This will
be the 3rd year of flex scheduling-- weeks 11-17, NBC can switch the Sunday Night game 12 days in
advance. Details and official schedule
here. On
Thanksgiving, look out, the Eagles are hosting a game! In addition to the usual afternoon games at Detroit
and at Dallas, the Cardinals-Eagles game will be at 8:15 ET on the NFL Network. Also, this is the first
year of the NFL's new logo-- at first glance nothing really changed, but the darker colors add
contrast, the font is easier to read, and less stars to get in the way. Compare here. And this is the final year
for the Cowboys at Texas Stadium (see the new stadium here. And it will be the first year
for the Colts at the new Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
2. Super Bowl 43:
Super Bowl XLIII (43) will be Sunday February 1 in Tampa, Florida at the "Crown Jewel of the NFL", Raymond
James Stadium (here). The 2001 Super Bowl was also
held at RJS (Baltimore beat the NY Giants 34-7). It will be the 4th Super Bowl held in Tampa (1984, 1991,
2001, 2009) and the 14th in Florida (the most by any state). Super Bowl 43 has it's work cut out for it.
How do you top 42? The Giants miracle win, led, improbably, by Eli Manning. The Eli-getaway and sensational
catch by David Tyree (perhaps the best NFL play ever, watch it here, compare to the Immaculate Reception). NBC will have the Super Bowl for
the first time since 1998 but it will be NBC's 16th broadcast of the Super Bowl (tied for the most with
CBS).
3. Parity:
Ok, on the one hand you have the continued year-to-year domination of teams like New
England and Indianapolis. However, once upon a time teams didn't just go from last to first very easily.
However, in the last few years, worst-to-first has screwed up a lot of pre-season forecasts. Last year it
was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who went from 4-12 in 2006 to 9-7 in 2007. The year before it was the Saints
at 10-6 following a 3-13 season in 2005 (and the Eagles turned 6-10 into 10-6 from 2005 to 2006). The
Chicago Bears were the big surprise in 2005, but so were the Bucs, both reversing 5-11 2004's into 11-5
2005's. The Chargers were 4-12 in 2003 and 12-4 in 2004. The Atlanta Falcons were 5-11 in 2003 and 11-5 in
2004. And in 2003 it was the Chiefs and Panthers that turned it all around. Who will it be in 2008?
Let's take a look at the 2007 standings,
here, and guess. Houston was a respectable 8-8 last year so 10+ wins wouldn't really
surprise anyone. The Ravens were 5-11 and could bounce but with Cleveland and Cincy also looking to improve
Baltimore is not our choice. Miami is going to bounce off of 1-15 but it's too early to think playoffs. So,
in the AFC it's got to be either the Chiefs or Raiders (both 4-12). In the NFC the Eagles could snap back
from an 8-8 last place season, but it wouldn't be all that impressive. The Bears could snap back from 7-9
but likewise it wouldn't be that exciting. How about the Falcons (4-12) or the Lions (7-9)? That
would be a change. And what about the St. Louis Rams? They have the offensive firepower for a reversal. In
any case, parity seems to be the new norm in the NFL. Teams can, essentially, come out of nowhere and
compete these days. Our pick-- the Falcons: Michael Turner (here) has a home as something other than a handcuff
this year.
4. Top Fantasy Players:
What's changing? Naturally, Adrian Peterson is near the top of all the rankings. Unfortunately, a lot of
fantasy football leagues are keeper leagues. If ever there was a year to just give the trophy before the
season started this would be it. Those who get to "keep" A.D. have a huge lead on everyone else. Steven
Jackson is getting a lot of attention heading into this season. He missed 4 1/2 games last year and so a
lot of folks think he can bounce back to 2006 style numbers (career stats here. There doesn't seem to be much reason to bet
against the enthusiasm. What to do about Ryan Grant? The Packers RB scored a TD in each of his final 6
games averaging 93 yards per game in the process, despite limited carries in some games (game log here). How high to reach? Reggie Bush failed to
accumulate over 1,000 combined rushing and receiving yards in 2007. The bright side? He missed the last 4
games of the season so his overall numbers surely would have looked much better. After a lot of reaching in
the fantasy draft last year, where will Bush land this year? FF Toolbox says #15 in their Top 100 here. But Funston says #32 at Yahoo's Big
Board here.
5. NFL Rookie of the Year:
Some experts say Darrin McFadden will get lost in the pile of RB's hanging out in Oakland (Justin Fargas
and Michael Bush could both end up ahead of him on the depth charts). Yet, could the fact that Fargas
looked so good be the rationale for expecting McFadden can do even better? That's what Tim Furious
concludes at BetUs
here. Those wondering how many
carries McFadden will get should consider his 6-year, $60 million contract. While we are talking money,
maybe QB Matt Ryan's $72 million over 6 is worth watching in Atlanta. Other experts believe Jonathan
Stewart will come out of nowhere to rule the backfield in Carolina and rack up piles of yardage. What are
the odds?
Here they have McFadden at 3-1; Detroit's Kevin Smith at 6-1; Chicago's
Matt Forte at 6-1; Carolina's Jonathan Stewart at 6.5-1; and Matt Ryan at 12-1.
6. The AFC South vs NFC East
A lot of folks could probably argue about the best divisions in the NFL. We narrow it down to 2: AFC South
vs NFC East. There is little doubt that the NFC East is the best division in the NFC. Heck, the defending
Super Bowl champ (NY Giants) is not even, heading into this year, considered the best team in the division,
the Dallas Cowboys are. And the other two teams are more than respectable-- the Eagles and Redskins. And,
heading into this year, it seems pretty obvious that the best divisions in the AFC is the South. The AFC
South won a combined 42 games last year (13, 11, 10, 8). No other AFC division even comes close (East 28,
North 32, West 26). The Colts are the Colts. Then you have Jacksonville, which is top-to-bottom strong this
year. Houston has 10-win potential. And Tennessee won 10 last season. The AFC South's 42 wins last year
beats the NFC East's 2nd-best 37 W's. It would have been nice to see some of the teams going head-to-head
in the regular season.
7. Buffalo Bills
QB Trent Edwards was flippin horrible down the stretch last year. In the final 3 games-- all losses-- he
threw for 124, 161, and 133 yards with 2 total TD's. He's the best option they have? Bills fans will have
to hope his Week 14, 4 TD's vs Miami (0-13 at that point), is a better indication of his ability. The Bills
other offensive rookie last year, RB Marshawn Lynch, fared much better-- piling up over 1,100 yards rushing
and 7 TD's in 13 games, yet averaging just under 4 yards per carry. In comes Turk Schonert to steer the
ship. On defense, the #11 pick in this year's draft, CB Leodis McKelvin is expected to be relied on. The
Bills have been stuck in a range of wins for a while-- stuck between 5 and 9 wins for 6 straight seasons.
Never horrible, but never tasting the playoffs (last trip was a 1999 wild card loss). Buffalo has 7 wins
two years in a row; and this year may see them still stuck in the 5 to 9 range. The upside is hoping that
the young pieces become a foundation for the future.
8. New York Jets
The Jets have been on a 5-year roller coaster. It started with the 2003 season when the team was expected to compete for the playoffs and instead won just 6 games. Then, the very next season they turnaround and win 10 games. In 2005: just 4 wins. 2006: back up to 10 wins. Last season, back down to a lowly 4 W's. So what team is going to show up this year? See the New York Jets Win-Loss History. Some say it is actually 1993 all over again (story), and
that's not a good thing. The Jets started 1993, 8-5 but finished 8-8 and then won 6 games in 1994, 3 games in 1995, and 1 game in 1996. Why is it like 1993? Well, in this offseason (like heading into 1993) the Jets were aggressive in making improvements (to a team coming off a bad season). This year, they have chosen to boost the offensive line (which makes sense) with the additions of OG Alan Faneca (from Pittsburgh) and OLB Calvin Pace (from Arizona). They are stuck (though, ironically, not maybe it is a blessing) with a QB battle between Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington. At RB it will be another year of getting the most out of Thomas Jones (pushed by Washington and Chatman). A good bet on defense is building on the rise of CB Darrelle Revis. Hard to bet on more than 9 wins. And their September schedule (2008 schedule here) is tough enough that the Jets may be digging out of hole in the 2nd half and paving the way for better times in 2009.
9. "San Francisco" 49ers
How much longer will they be in San Francisco? Wouldn't it be ironic if the Bay Area was left with one team, the Raiders- because the Niners moved to L.A. For 37 years the Niners have played in "Candlestick"
and given the run of new stadiums, it's time for San Francisco to take the team seriously, or lose them. In fact, it may be time for any city in the Bay Area to take the Niners seriously. Santa Clara, CA (map) which has a plan for a $900 million stadium has put off a public vote on funding until at least 2009 (story, story). So, this story checks out the various options for the 49ers and starts talking L.A.-- specifically Brisbane, CA (location, east of L.A.. There is already a plan, and a web site, for an L.A. Stadium. But L.A. just might get the Jaguars instead, story.
10. What does Vegas say?
The Vegas favorites are: New England Patriots (5/2), Dallas Cowboys (9/2), and Indianapolis Colts (6/1). The Jaguars, Giants, and Chargers are all 10/1 and the Packers (12/1) and Seahawks (15/1) are given outside chances. See the Vegas odds here. Via TradeSports the traders are once again all over the Patriots heading into the season. The Patriots are trading at 22.6 (basically a 22.6% chance they win it). The Cowboys are at 10.8; the Colts at 10.0; and the Chargers at 8.6. The 5th highest chance is the Jaguars, trading at about 6.0. There is little difference between the TradeSports prices and Vegas odds this year. And, actually, little change from last year when the Patriots were the big favorite. Interestingly, TradeSports had New England at a 17% chance last year so expectations are New England is hungry this year. Actually, could the Patriots win 16 again?
2007 NFL Top 10 archive posted here: 2007 NFL Top 10.
2006 Top 10 archive posted here: 2006 NFL Top 10.
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