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Top Ten Things
for NFL 2007
Posted July 29, 2007
1. Around the NFL:
The 88th season in the history of the NFL will begin Thursday night September 6 (Saints at Indianapolis) (schedule here). And Super Bowl XLII (42) will be in Glendale, Arizona
(home of the brand new, state-of-the-art University of Phoenix Stadium (here), famous for the Boise State-Oklahoma 2007 Fiesta Bowl-- flashback here). This will be the 2nd year of flex scheduling-- weeks 11-17, NBC can switch the
Sunday Night game 12 days in advance. And, Sunday, October 28 (Week 8), the NFL goes global with an international regular season game: New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins at Wembley Stadium in London. Also, why is Brett Favre still around? He needs just 7 more TD's to break Dan Marino's record for most career touchdown passes. Finally, bye weeks are now Week 4 to Week 10 (instead of week 3-9).
2. Chicago Bears:
Are the Bears a one-hit wonder? Gone is Thomas Jones, the heart of the team. Now its time to rely on the unproven Cedric Benson. But if worst comes to worst in the backfield, the Bears do have (the other) Adrian Peterson. So, the question may really come down to defense and Rex Grossman. Regarding the defense, Lance Briggs came up big in the Super Bowl but is holding out for a long-term deal. Will he sit out long? Doubtful when the Bears have a 1-year $7.2 million offer for him. If he does hold out, the Bears will be fine. Any guy sitting out games and pouting that $7.2 million
ain't enough will not be missed. As for Rex Grossman, its a mixed bag. Last year was his first full season in the NFL. And he led the team all the way to the Super Bowl. He was inconsistent and his final stats weren't that great. Actually, inconsistent is a nice term considering how bad he can look at times. But some growing pains can be expected for a first full NFL season. Whether he irons out his rough spots will go a long way to determining the fate of the Bears season.
3. Evaluating the Rookies:
As the 2007 NFL Draft approached, basically, everyone was clear about 2 things: 1) Calvin Johnson was the best player available, but 2) Oakland, needing a star QB, should take JaMarcus Russell with the first pick. Now, as the season approaches, the Vegas oddsmakers are calling the Rookie of the Year race with that same logic-- new Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson is the favorite. That may have more to do with the fact that QB's are rarely ever ready to have big enough impact in their first season. Since the first NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 1967, only 3 QB's have
won vs 29 RB's and 5 WR's. But, 2 of the last 3 best rookies have been QB's: Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 and Vince Young in 2006. So will JaMarcus Russell grab the reigns fast enough? Or is there an opening for Johnson, or even Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson? Other possibilities: Marshawn Lynch may get the ball a lot in Buffalo. As for the fun to watch category, former Ohio State Buckeye, Anthony Gonzalez, arrives in Indy to catch passes from Peyton Manning. Upside there? Vegas calls the rookie of the year race here. Note that Joe Thomas is midway down the list. There is one offensive lineman that won Rookie of the Year-- Earl McCullouch for the Detroit Lions in 1968. Not much talk about Brady Quinn.
4. Detroit Lions:
The Lions are mired in one of the worst long-term slumps in the history of the NFL. Detroit has lost 10 or more games 6 years in a row. So the goal this season is pretty simple: end that streak. But how's it going to happen? Let's start with a basic 'goal'. The Lions have lost 10 or more games 6 years in a row. It's time to put that streak to an end. It's been 16 years since the Lions won a playoff game. And, 34 years before that. 1957 and 1991 are the Lions last 2 playoff wins. Vegas has Detroit at 125/1 to win the Super Bowl, that's only slightly better than the worst, Raiders at 150/1. Detroit's win/loss history here. In Detroit, the speculation has begun. Will this team go 4-12 or 12-4? At least their talking optimistically. Story.
5. Running Backs:
Who is this year's LaMont Jordan or Cadillac Williams? Frank Gore basically proved himself and Rudi Johnson is pretty reliable. But what about Brian Westbrook, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush, and Willis McGahee? Which one of those guys is ranked a little too high this year? Depending on how deep your league is, you don't necessarily have to have your 2 running backs right away. For example, definitely if your in a league with more than 10 teams. It's a pretty deep fantasy
draft for RB's this year. More importantly, there are just a lot of RB's that have unusual risk this year-- from Marshawn Lynch and Cadillac Williams to Jamal Lewis and Brandon Jacobs. You may even wish you have Marvin Harrison instead of guessing about Willis McGahee, Thomas Jones, or Maurice Jones-Drew. And if your thinking twice about an RB, remember there are just about 4 or 5 top QB's and your better off being sure to grab one of them (Peyton, Palmer, Brady, Brees, and Bulger).
6. Philadelphia Eagles:
The Philadelphai Eagles are one of the NFL's biggest question marks heading into the 2007 season. Is QB Donovan McNabb going to ready to go for the regular season? Will he be 100%, or just 75% like he says here? Or, is it fair to start asking whether McNabb will ever be the same after 3 major injuries in 5 years. Certainly, McNabb's
ability will go a long way to determining the Eagles success. But, it's not just the regular season where the Eagles results will have an impact. The Eagles offensive stars are question marks for fantasy drafts. How high to draft McNabb? He has the ability to be one of the NFL's best QB's this year. With the fall off in talent after QB's like Bulger, a lot of fantasy owners will have to roll the dice on McNabb. Another interesting fantasy situation is RB Brian Westbrook.
"The Wizard" is a consensus 7th or 8th pick in fantasy drafts this year. Can he deliver on the hype? And for the receivers, if McNabb does come through, will that make WR Reggie Brown a great stealth fantasy pick? Or will TE L.J. Smith or one of the other Eagles wideouts grab the spotlight? Team depth chart here. The Eagles are definitely a team to watch closely in the preseason, because a return to greatness is an open possibility, and there are lots of fantasy implications.
7. Cincinnati Bengals:
Where will the TD's go this year? Will sixth-year RB Rudi Johnson break out above his standard 12 TD's per year? And/or could QB Carson Palmer go for a big season, like 35 or 40 TD's? And, then the real battle will be between the 2 big receivers: Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Last year, Houshmandzadeh had 9 TD catches vs 7 for Johnson. This year, everyone thinks Johnson will grabe the most Bengal TD receptions-- like he usually does. And, don't forget, WR Chris Henry is suspended for the first 8 games of 2007. Henry grabbed 9 TD receptions last year. That means in the firt half, 4.5 TD's will be going either to Johnson, Houshmandzadeh, or an upstart such as WR Tab Perry.
8. Vince Young and Reggie Bush:
After 1 year in the NFL, 2 things are clear about Vince Young and Reggie Bush. 1) Both are extremely exciting players that are fun to watch whenever you get the chance. 2) Both make their teams better and help their teams win games. The question is this: Will it translate into fantasy value this season?
9. Fantasy Draft Tip
Tight Ends vs. Team Defense. In most fantasy football leagues you need to draft a starting Tight End and a starting Team Defense. Usually the top TE's fly off the board in a bunch especially around Round 4. However, this year may be a little different. In 2007, there are a lot of TE options and its not easy to figure out who is best among them. Therefore, you may want to grab a good Team Defense early and settle on the TE others passed on. TE depth this year: Gates, Gonzalez, Shockey, Winslow, Cooley, Davis, Smith, Heap, Crumpler, Watson, Witten. Lots of respectable options.
10. What does Vegas say?
The Vegas favorites are: New England Patriots (5/1), Indianapolis Colts (5.5/1), San Diego Chargers (6/1), and Chicago Bears (8/1). The Ravens (10/1), Saints (12/1), Seahawks (15/1), and Bengals (15/1) have the next best chances. See the Vegas prices here. The traders overwhelming favorite is the Patriots. The Chargers and Colts are the next best choices. This is in line with Vegas odds. You can view trading prices via TradeSports here. The Bears, Saints, Ravens, and Cowboys are getting some action. And, at the bottom of the list, given virtually no chance, are: Houston, Cleveland, and Buffalo. The difference between Vegas and the TradeSports trading market is that you can sell your TradeSports position during the season. So, the Patriots are, right now, trading at 17 (meaning a 17% chance of winning), but those prices will change from week-to-week depending on how well they do. With Vegas, once you bet, your locked in for the season at those odds. At this point, one difference is that the traders are much bigger on New England and Vegas likes the Bears more than the traders.
2006 Top 10 archive posted here: 2006 NFL Top 10.
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