NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams and Locks by Fanbay

NCAA Tournament: Complete Stats and Analysis. Bubble Teams, Automatic Bids, Locks
Last update: 3/16/08 (5:50pm ET)
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THE. BEST. TOURNEY. ANALYSIS. IS HERE.

2008: Which teams are in?
The tables below show which teams from which conference are definitely in (Automatic Bid), which are likely in (Locks) and which teams are "Probable" and "On the Bubble". Finally, we list the teams with their records and statistics (sorted by our unique stat adjusted wins). Who's in? Scroll and decide.
We also have round-by-round updated at NCAA tournament predictions.

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** Analysis below (jump) ** Who's In, See the Full Ranked List (jump)

NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams and Automatic Bids

Bubble and Locks: Analysis:
· #1 Seeds are basically set after Tennessee loss: UNC, UCLA, Kansas, Memphis.
· Sunday spoilers: Georgia steals a spot.
· The Missouri Valley will get 2 teams. We have Illinois State as "probably" in. Creighton has a very outside chance.
· Pac 10: Arizona has a great SOS (#2 in the country) and a solid RPI and Sagarin. The Pac-10 could get 6 teams, meaning that run of 27 straight NCAA's might not be over. Have to wait until Sunday to find out. If they pick just one, head-to-head its Arizona State.
· Big 12: We think Texas A&M and Oklahoma have played their way in. Leaving, maybe, 1 more spot, to either Kansas State or Baylor. Since it is the 3rd best conference 5 teams is probably justified. Already in: Kansas, Texas.
· Atlantic 10: Likely 3 teams. Xavier is a lock. Temple is the auto bid. Massachusetts, St. Joe's and Dayton are on the fence to take the 3rd spot. Could Dayton sneak in?
· SEC: Tenn, Vandy, Miss.St. are in. Arkansas seems in. Georgia takes a spot. That leaves Florida, Mississippi, and Kentucky battling for a 6th spot. Kentucky has the best SOS.
· Big East: Not getting more than 7. That's our bottom line. Pitt played their way in. We think West Virginia has to go in. But even giving the Big East more than 7 teams does not seem likely. Sorry Villanova.
· Big Ten: Minnesota or Ohio State? Or do they both stay home? The Buckeyes may have the better case, but if they got snubbed.. out of all bubble teams, they can deal with it. Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Purdue already in.
· ACC: The ACC will probably get 5, the conference is ranked #1. UNC, Duke, Clemson already in; Miami-FL and Virginia Tech looking like the other 2. Maryland, Fla St, and Wake all look kinda marginal and out.
· Mountain West: On paper, New Mexico and UNLV can both go (in addition to BYU). But 3 teams from the Mountain West? Don't know if that's gonna happen. UNLV looks better to us. New Mexico will have to sweat it out.
· Stir Crazy: The big conferences getting an extra team besides what we say above seems tough given some good quality teams. We think 2 of these teams get in: Robert Morris, South Alabama, St. Mary's, VCU, UAB, New Mexico.
· Bottom Line: From our bubble and "good records" list the last 8 in are: St. Mary's, VCU, Arkansas, UAB, Dayton, Arizona State, South Alabama, Kansas State
· See conference explanations below. We placed the minimum the conference is going to get. This leaves 9 spots to slot among all of the conferences. There will be a lot of tough decisions this year.

* Note: team win-loss records are through Friday 3/14.