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2008-2009 NBA Standings Predictions: Eastern
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2008-09 Season Preview - Predicted Final Team Standings (last updated September 26, 2008)
Western Conference
Overview: Wild cards this season are the Clippers, Nuggets, and Blazers (the Clippers in particular have unlimited upside). It could come down to just 1 of those 3 making the playoffs. The top 7 seem to be almost solid playoff locks: HOU, DAL, UTA, LAL, PHX, SAS, NO. It's just a close battle for playoff positioning (once again) this year.
1. Los Angeles Lakers Phil Jackson
Projected wins: 54
Record last season: 57-25 (+15)
Record 2006-2007: 42-40 (-3)
Record 2005-2006: 45-37 (+11)
Record 2004-2005: 34-48 (-22)
Record 2003-2004: 56-26 (+6)
Upside: When you trade a bag of chips for Pau Gasol your team becomes better. Gasol won 50 games playing for Memphis in 2003-2004. And, Gasol led Memphis to 49 W's just a couple years ago. He never got enough credit for that.
Recap: Kobe just turned 30 in August (so, still young) and the Lakers have Gasol and Bynum down low. Are they the best team in the West? On paper, no question: Kobe, Gasol, Odom, and Bynum. But as goes Kobe...
2. Houston Rockets Rick Adelman
Projected wins: 52
Record last season: 55-27 (+3)
Record 2006-2007: 52-30 (+18)
Record 2005-2006: 34-48 (-17)
Record 2004-2005: 51-31 (+6)
Record 2003-2004: 45-37 (+2)
Upside: The Rockets made a bold offseason move by bringing in Ron Artest. Clearly that move provides the caliber of juice that can deliver more W's.
Recap: The question becomes one of team chemistry (and Tracy McGrady's mood, and health). The good thing here is that Artest's style seems a good fit in concept. Defensively, Artest's clamp-down style will go well with Yao's interior presence. And this could work well on offense too, since with Yao, the Rockets didn't want to go in the direction of running. Bottom line, Houston becomes a team to beat. And, who knows, maybe Artest can get McGrady beyond Round 1 in the playoffs.
3. New Orleans Hornets Byron Scott
Projected wins: 51
Record last season: 56-26 (+17)
Record 2006-2007: 39-43 (+1)
Record 2005-2006: 38-44 (+20)
Record 2004-2005: 18-64 (-23)
Record 2003-2004: 41-41 (-6)
Upside: Everyone already gets the Hornets upside. They are the new favorite story of the NBA. And with CP3 it's easy to see why.
Recap: The Hornets are not just led by Chris Paul, they are Chris Paul. David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler are a little better than nothing without him. Sorry, just the facts.
4. Dallas Mavericks Rick Carlisle
Projected wins: 50
Record last season: 51-31 (-16)
Record 2006-2007: 67-15 (+7)
Record 2005-2006: 60-22 (+2)
Record 2004-2005: 58-24 (+6)
Record 2003-2004: 52-30 (-8)
Upside: The Mavericks head into the season placing their hopes on last season's acquisition, Jason Kidd. Plus, Rick Carlisle steps in as the coach to guide a Kidd-centric team.
Recap: Unfortunately, the Mavs have just as much potential to be team turmoil. It's a top-down problem no doubt when you got an in-your-face owner like Mark Cuban. But from Kidd's penchant for seeking out the media, Josh Howard's off-court problems, Dampier's Dampierness, no one should be surprised if the Mavs become a media show. Still, while that could happen, have to bet the Mavs finish top-tier in the West.
5. Utah Jazz Jerry Sloan
Projected wins: 49
Record last season: 54-28 (+3)
Record 2006-2007: 51-31 (+10)
Record 2005-2006: 41-41 (+15)
Record 2004-2005: 26-56 (-16)
Record 2003-2004: 42-40 (-5)
Upside: So long as Deron Williams keeps playing like he has, the Jazz can ride Sloan's wizard-like coaching another year.
Recap: The success of the Jazz comes down to Jerry Sloan-- a coach no one should ever bet against. While a key injury could easily derail Utah, they also have some depth (in Milsap, Korver, Brewer, Knight) that is more than capable of filling voids. A well-rounded, well-coached team seems a recipe for another decent year.
6. San Antonio Spurs Gregg Popovich
Projected wins: 48
Record last season: 56-26 (-2)
Record 2006-2007: 58-24 (-5 wins from previous year)
Record 2005-2006: 63-19 (+4)
Record 2004-2005: 59-23 (+2)
Record 2003-2004: 57-25 (-3)
Upside: Hard to see much upside for the Spurs. They have won 56 or more games in 8 straight seasons. And, actually, you can trace their run of success (here) all the way back to 1989 when Larry Brown won 56.
Recap: The issue with the Spurs might not be so much with talent (you can't just write-off Duncan for age quite yet). The problem just might be familiarity. It would have to be hard for any team in the NBA to not know what to expect when you see the Spurs. No one should really be afraid of them at this point. And, frankly, teams should start having these guys figured out by now. Shouldn't they?
7. Phoenix Suns Terry Porter
Projected wins: 47
Record last season: 55-27 (-6)
Record 2006-2007: 61-21 (+7)
Record 2005-2006: 54-28 (-8)
Record 2004-2005: 62-20 (+33)
Record 2003-2004: 29-53 (-15)
Upside: The upside is the playoffs. No one is expecting the Suns to light up the regular season. They have Diesel fuel to conserve, and Nash too (turns 34 in February) for that matter. But this is a team that was re-tooled to be playing in June 2009.
Recap: D'Antoni is gone. It's a big move, so besides guessing how many days off Shaq will take its probably right to wonder if the transition to new coach Terry Porter will be smooth. Probably going to be no problem. Let's not forget that guy Amare Stoudemire.
8. Denver Nuggets George Karl
Projected wins: 46
Record last season: 50-32 (+5)
Record 2006-2007: 45-37 (+1)
Record 2005-2006: 44-38 (-5)
Record 2004-2005: 49-33 (+6)
Record 2003-2004: 43-39 (+26)
Upside: For a team that has averaged a respectable 47 wins the last 4 seasons all they have to show for it is a painfully consistent string of first round playoff exits. Upside has become a kind of 'I'll believe it when I see it'. Who wants to stick their neck out making a case for the Nuggets?
Recap: The Nuggets have simply lacked determination... to win. We all know Carmelo and Iverson are determined to score. We know Iverson is determined to try (hard) to win. But the Nuggets leaders need to figure out how to make the team work, and win. And that task has only become harder with the departure of Marcus Camby. Still, Carmelo Anthony, for all his faults, has never missed the playoffs in his career. And we don't think he will this year either.
9. Portland Trail Blazers Nate McMillan
Projected wins: 45
Record last season: 41-41 (+9)
Record 2006-2007: 32-50 (+11)
Record 2005-2006: 21-61 (-6)
Record 2004-2005: 27-55 (-14)
Record 2003-2004: 41-41 (-9)
Upside: The Blazers will look to build on last year's surprise, well-earned .500 season. But it could be tough given a built-in degree of expectations from national analysts.
Recap: Greg Oden is healthy, but he's not back. He's never played a game. No one should just presume the Blazers are a better team just because a rookie has arrived. Portland was a pleasant surprise last year, but the jury is still out (in our humble opinion) on whether this is a playoff team in the West. This year could be heartache.
10. Los Angeles Clippers Mike Dunleavy Sr.
Projected wins: 44
Record last season: 23-59 (-17)
Record 2006-2007: 40-42 (-7)
Record 2005-2006: 47-35 (+10)
Record 2004-2005: 37-45 (+9)
Record 2003-2004: 28-54 (+1)
Upside: The sky is the limit for L.A.'s other team.
Recap: Even if the Clippers were just Al Thornton you might say they have some upside. Add in Baron Davis and Marcus Camby to a team with Chris Kaman and Cuttino Mobley. It's really hard to assess how things turn out for the Clippers. Remember B.D. and Camby are not coming from places where they were winning left-and-right. And we won't even get into the injury risks. Let's just say the Clippers could hit it big, but it is the Clippers after all. Let them prove it.
11. Sacramento Kings Reggie Theus
Projected wins: 40
Record last season: 38-44 (+5)
Record 2006-2007: 33-49 (-11)
Record 2005-2006: 44-38 (-6)
Record 2004-2005: 50-32 (-5)
Record 2003-2004: 55-27 (-4)
Upside: Reggie Theus has done a respectable job with the talent he has had. Now, with Bibby gone (and, of course, Artest), it definitely becomes the coach's team a little more. And it will be interesting to see what Theus makes of it this year.
Recap: If Theus can slot the talent into the right positions at the right times this might not be a bad year for the Kings. For example, John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, Mikki Moore, and Beno Udrih have all demonstrated NBA upside. Brad Miller and Kevin Martin are the new glue.
12. Golden State Warriers Don Nelson
Projected wins: 34
Record last season: 48-34 (+6)
Record 2006-2007: 42-40 (+8)
Record 2005-2006: 34-48 (0)
Record 2004-2005: 34-48 (-3)
Record 2003-2004: 37-45 (-1)
Upside: So much excitement when the Warriors fans emerged to deliver a first round playoff shocker beating the Mavs in 2007. But then came the playoff miss last year despite 48 wins. But the free agent 'trade' losing Baron Davis and signing Corey Maggette doesn't seem like the right kind of move.
Recap: One minute the Warriors were an up-and-coming cinderella of the West. Now, the roster looks like it, at least potentially, could be one of the worst in the NBA-- especially with Monta Ellis missing the first month or so of the season.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves Randy Wittman
Projected wins: 30
Record last season: 22-60 (-10)
Record 2006-2007: 32-50 (-1)
Record 2005-2006: 33-49 (-11)
Record 2004-2005: 44-38 (-14)
Record 2003-2004: 58-24 (+7)
Upside: It has been all downhill since winning 58 games in 2003-2004. After dumping Garnett the T-Wolves have begun a turnaround process. And the addition of Mike Miller provides some needed stability to the line-up. Plus, Randy Foye may be healthy after missing more than 1/2 of last season.
Recap: The addition of SG Mike Miller may be significant in more ways than one. Miller is a proven shooter and that should take pressure off Al Jefferson on offense. And maybe with Miller in town, and the pick up of UCLA-sensation Kevin Love, a guy like Corey Brewer can find a narrower role to play that can make the T-Wolves click.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder P.J. Carlesimo
Projected wins: 27
Record last season: 20-62 (-11)
Record 2006-2007: 31-51 (-4)
Record 2005-2006: 35-47 (-17)
Record 2004-2005: 52-30 (+15)
Record 2003-2004: 37-45 (-3)
Upside: Life begins anew in a new city. The upside is just that-- remember Oklahoma City breathed life into the Hornets franchise.
Recap: The Thunder will continue the rebuilding process around Kevin Durant. This year, surrounding pieces need to start emerging. And its pretty hard to determine where, if anywhere, the pieces for success are on this roster. First round pick PG Russell Westbrook? Or, can the team find a way to get both Wilcox and Collison delivering boards and points together, consistently.
15. Memphis Grizzlies Mark Iavaroni
Projected wins: 25
Record last season: 22-60 (no change)
Record 2006-2007: 22-60 (-27)
Record 2005-2006: 49-33 (+4)
Record 2004-2005: 45-37 (-5)
Record 2003-2004: 50-32 (+22)
Upside: They got a Gasol on the roster.
Recap: The new backcourt of Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo has the potential to be fun to watch. But, the Grizzlies are starting over and it could be really painful this year.
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