Fanbay NBA
· NBA Stats.
2008-2009 NBA Standings Predictions: Eastern
· Western
2008-09 Season Preview - Predicted Final Team Standings (last updated October 5, 2008)
Eastern Conference
Overview: Five teams seem a lock for the playoffs (BOS, DET, ORL, PHI, and CLE). Then, we say, the Hawks will be motivated enough to return. That leaves 2 playoff slots left, of which the competition, we think, is between MIL, TOR, and WAS. Teams with upside, though probably outside-looking-in, include Miami (may need another year to develop), Chicago (same roster, same results?), and Indiana (sleeper, depends on coaching).
1. Boston Celtics Doc Rivers
Projected 2008-09 wins: 56
Record last season: 66-16 (+42)
Record 2006-2007: 24-58 (-9)
Record 2005-2006: 33-49 (-12)
Record 2004-2005: 45-37 (+9)
Record 2003-2004: 36-46 (-8)
Upside: Where will the motivation come from, now that the dream team got it's NBA Championship? Ok, the Celtics Big 3 seem old as dirt, and they are old. But, Pierce-Allen-Garnett (ages 31-3-32) may still be young enough (compare to say Shaq, at 36) to still care about the regular season. And so maybe they can set their sites on records like 72 wins (95-96 Bulls) or 33 wins in a row (71-72 Lakers).
Recap: The Celtics played for everything last year-- they didn't mess around at all in the regular season and then, with a bump or two, steamrolled their way to an NBA Championship. But come NBA Finals, the Celtics needed some big ball by Paul Pierce, cause for some reason Garnett just ain't a late game stud, and Ray-Ray is streaky like all great shooters. Anyways, post season could be tougher sledding for Boston this year, but the trip there could be nearly as easy as last year-- this is still, pretty much, the same Eastern Conference.
2. Detroit Pistons Michael Curry
Projected wins: 52
Record last season: 59-23 (+6)
Record 2006-2007: 53-29 (-9)
Record 2005-2006: 64-18 (+10)
Record 2004-2005: 54-28 (no change)
Record 2003-2004: 54-28 (+4 wins)
Upside: The Pistons are stacked. They might make the playoffs if they were in the Western Conference. In the East, they're near cream-of-the-crop material.
Recap: The lone weak spot is in the paint (though the Pistons bring now journeyman Kwame Brown into the mix). But who cares about a lone weak spot when you play in the East. The Pistons roster, top-to-bottom, is phenomenal-- taking superstars like Prince, Hamilton, 'Sheed, Billups and matching em with the upside of Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Rodney Stuckey. Guys like Kwame Brown, Arron Afflalo, Cheikh Samb, and Walter Herrmann are just icing. Not to mention Antonio McDyess. Another 50 win season. Easy.
3. Orlando Magic Stan Van Gundy
Projected 2008-09 wins: 49
Record last season: 52-30 (+12)
Record 2006-2007: 40-42 (+4)
Record 2005-2006: 36-46 (0)
Record 2004-2005: 36-46 (+15)
Record 2003-2004: 21-61 (-21)
Upside: The addition of 6-6 SG Michael Pietrus is literally huge. The East doesn't have much, but it does have big SG's (Allen, Hamilton, Johnson, Redd, Carter, etc) and Pietrus will be the defender the Magic need, especially come playoff time.
Recap: The Magic are undeniably weak with Jameer Nelson as the PG for the season, which might only be good in the sense of continuity and roster stability. Lots of pressure on either Turkoglu to play as well as last year or Rashard Lewis to actually put a consistent game together. Still, Dwight Howard really is Superman and the Magic are playoff bound again.
4. Philadelphia 76ers Maurice Cheeks
Projected 2008-09 wins: 48
Record last season: 40-42 (+5)
Record 2006-2007: 35-47 (-3)
Record 2005-2006: 38-44 (-5)
Record 2004-2005: 43-39 (+10 wins)
Record 2003-2004: 33-49 (-15 wins)
Upside: What is not to like after the addition of Elton Brand? First, Brand makes A.I. (that's Iguodala) a multi-category supporting player rather than the focal point of offensive production. And, Brand means Dalembert can focus entirely on what he does best (block shots).
Recap: The Sixers are now a well-rounded team (A.Miller, A.Iguodala, S.Dalembert, W.Green, L.Williams, T.Young, R.Evans) with a rock-solid anchor, Elton Brand. Brand might still be muddling along if he were in the West, but in the East, not only should this team head back to the playoffs, but they should have home court in the first round.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers Mike Brown
Projected wins: 47
Record last season: 45-37 (-5)
Record 2006-2007: 50-32 (no change)
Record 2005-2006: 50-32 (+8)
Record 2004-2005: 42-40 (+7)
Record 2003-2004: 35-47 (+18)
Upside: While new PG Mo Williams wasn't the right fit for the Bucks he just might be perfect for the Cavs-- which can use Mo's fire power.
Recap: As goes LeBron so will go the Cavaliers. It is hard to imagine that James alone is going to want to carry the team to a big regular season. Rather, James is probably thinking, just get to the playoffs and turn on the rockets once there-- to heck with home court advantage.
6. Atlanta Hawks Mike Woodson
Projected 2008-09 wins: 42
Record last season: 37-45 (+7)
Record 2006-2007: 30-52 (+4)
Record 2005-2006: 26-56 (+13)
Record 2004-2005: 13-69 (-15)
Record 2003-2004: 28-54 (-7)
Upside: There's plenty of room for improvement for a team that won just 37 games last year.
Recap: The problem is the team didn't improve in the offseason. In fact they lost Josh Childress to Europe. But they do have PG Mike Bibby for an entire year. And while Bibby may not be all that, he can provide some glue and leadership during the regular season. He maybe he could help Acie Law develop into an NBA PG. The Hawks success will of course depend on Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, but Marvin Williams and Al Horford can both be expected to have improved statistics this year. They tasted what the playoffs can be last year and we suspect that is more than enough motivation for this talented crew to do anything they can to get back there.
7. Milwaukee Bucks Scott Skiles
Projected 2008-09 wins: 39
Record last season: 26-56 (-2)
Record 2006-2007: 28-54 (-12)
Record 2005-2006: 40-42 (+10)
Record 2004-2005: 30-52 (-11)
Record 2003-2004: 41-41 (-1)
Upside: The Bucks won just 26 games last year and thus it is a long way back to the playoffs. However, the Bucks, unlike a lot of other teams, made some positive changes in the offseason.
Recap: Richard Jefferson provides a big-time compliment to Michael Redd making the Bucks a legitimate offense-oriented team. They will also have 2 traditional style pass-first PG's in up-and-comer Ramon Sessions and former Sonic Luke Ridnour. PF Charlie Villanueva was solid last year and Andrew Bogut continues to improve. Throw in talent like Charlie Bell and rookie Joe Alexander (Sky Vanilla) and this is a bubble team, that we think can make the playoffs.
8. Toronto Raptors Sam Mitchell
Projected 2008-09 wins: 38
Record last season: 41-41 (-6)
Record 2006-2007: 47-35 (+20)
Record 2005-2006: 27-55 (-6)
Record 2004-2005: 33-49 (no change)
Record 2003-2004: 33-49 (+9)
Upside: There doesn't seem to be the same type of buzz and upside for the Raptors this year. They are truly a playoff bubble team and just getting into the playoffs will be an accomplishment.
Recap: The Raps made a good move getting rid of T.J. Ford and bringing on Jermaine O'Neal. Toronto needed that kind of help in the paint. Plus, the Raptors don't necessarily need great things out of O'Neal. Ford only started in 26 games last year and in this sense O'Neal is just an extra piece. We say the Raptors make the playoffs.
9. Washington Wizards Eddie Jordan
Projected wins: 38
Record last season: 43-39 (+2)
Record 2006-2007: 41-41 (-1)
Record 2005-2006: 42-40 (-3)
Record 2004-2005: 45-37 (+20)
Record 2003-2004: 25-57 (-12)
Upside: Can the Wizards make the playoffs for a 5th straight year? A lot might depend on, not just how soon Gilbert Arenas is back on the court but how well he can run the team once back. He started just 8 games last year and will miss up to 2 months of the regular season.
Recap: The Wizards have a rock-solid trio, when healthy, in Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison. However, even with some developing talent like Andray Blatche the roster is looking a little stale-- like a team that isn't going to sneak up on anyone (kind of like the Nets with Kidd, Jefferson, and Carter). If the Wizards were really serious about contending they would take on a tough player, someone like Stephon Marbury. But the franchise seems stuck on stupid.
10. Chicago Bulls Vinny Del Negro
Projected wins: 34
Record last season: 33-49 (-16)
Record 2006-2007: 49-33 (+8)
Record 2005-2006: 41-41 (-6)
Record 2004-2005: 47-35 (+24)
Record 2003-2004: 23-59 (-7)
Upside: Ok, just two years ago the Bulls won nearly 50 games. Now, the roster is stacked with lots of seemingly decent players, but NO direction. Upside lies in simply 'throwing out' last season as an outlier. Otherwise, it's the same roster back for the same type of results.
Recap: The Bulls not only need to trade, they just have to make some sort of move. Chicago has too many of the same type of players (Hughes and Hinrich; Nocioni and Deng; Noah and Gray) with little team chemistry and it is time for a shake-up. Otherwise, last year over again.
11. Miami Heat Erik Spoelstra
Projected 2008-09 wins: 34
Record last season: 15-67 (-29)
Record 2006-2007: 44-38 (-8)
Record 2005-2006: 52-30 (-7)
Record 2004-2005: 59-23 (+17)
Record 2003-2004: 42-40 (+17)
Upside: There are those trying to see the glass as half full despite losing 67 out of 82 games last year. Supporters say Dwayne Wade IS all that. And Marion is a great complement, plus rookie F Michael Beasley (nba page) is ready for primetime.
Recap: But Riley isn't coaching, which, while good in our eyes, maybe could mean one thing... they aren't going to win. Cause the egomaniac would be running this show if there was any attention to be had. Our conclusion, this is a multi-year project to get back to primetime, and anyways, time is on Wade's side-- he's just 26 (so what's a year in the wilderness).
12. New York Knicks Mike D'Antoni
Projected 2008-09 wins: 33
Record last season: 23-59 (-10)
Record 2006-2007: 33-49 (+10)
Record 2005-2006: 23-59 (-10)
Record 2004-2005: 33-49 (-6)
Record 2003-2004: 39-43 (+2)
Upside: Mike D'Antoni comes into situation turmoil. It is hard to imagine any scenario in which the team does worse than last year, regardless of who the new coach would have been.
Recap: This is a project for D'Antoni to prove his coaching ability. Was it his system that made Steve Nash so great? Or was he riding the Steve Nash train to success in Phoenix? We have always felt D'Antoni was the real genius in Phoenix. Yet, does this roster of players (assembled by Isiah) fit D'Antoni's strengths as a coach? Frankly, is this roster (Crawford, Marbury, N.Robinson, Z.Randolph, E.Curry, Q.Richardson, C.Duhon, D.Lee) good enough for any coach to make good with? We see an improvement just based on seeing enough depth for a faster paced offense.
13. Indiana Pacers Jim O'Brien
Projected 2008-09 wins: 33
Record last season: 36-46 (+1)
Record 2006-2007: 35-47 (-6)
Record 2005-2006: 41-41 (-3)
Record 2004-2005: 44-38 (-17)
Record 2003-2004: 61-21 (+13)
Upside: The Pacers shouldn't be counted out as a contender. They finally have a real PG (presuming T.J. Ford stays healthy). And they have a bit of roster depth, in the form of role players, that could make for a successful team.
Recap: Indiana looked downright horrible at times last season. And a lot is now riding on the continued development of Danny Granger. The Pacers look stuck in a bizarre place, in-between re-building and contending. And thus success may come down to coach Jim O'Brien.
14. Charlotte Bobcats Larry Brown
Projected 2008-09 wins: 28
Record last season: 32-50 (-1)
Record 2006-2007: 33-49 (+7)
Record 2005-2006: 26-56 (+8)
Record 2004-2005: 18-64 (new team)
Record 2003-2004: Not in league
Upside: Both new coach Larry Brown and part-owner Michael Jordan always look to win; and so can there prior successes trickle down to wins on the court?
Recap: With Larry Brown, inevitably, situations of drama can develop. And the Bobcats roster is still missing something; and thus might Brown wind-up finding someone to blame for losing (say Raymond Felton or Gerald Wallace)? So, between the upside, and downside, of having Larry Brown as a coach there is wide range of outcomes for the Bobcats this year. While we would love to be the one's proclaiming things have changed and the Bobcats are finally a winner, it just doesn't seem to be in the cards.
15. New Jersey Nets Lawrence Frank
Projected 2008-09 wins: 26
Record last season: 34-48 (-7)
Record 2006-2007: 41-41 (-8 wins from previous year)
Record 2005-2006: 49-33 (+7 wins)
Record 2004-2005: 42-40 (-5 wins)
Record 2003-2004: 47-35 (-2 wins)
Upside: Losing Jason Kidd is a blessing in disguise, but losing Richard Jefferson too means the Nets are officially in re-building mode.
Recap: Vince Carter is the type of player that can win all on his own. But he also can be an injury risk... especially on a team where he will need to do everything to deliver W's. And, sure, Devin Harris has potential and so do some of the other young Nets (like Sean Williams and rookie CDR), but honestly, this is a bad team, totally dependent on Vince.
|
|