MLB - National League - Projections of 2007 Season Final Team Standings
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N.L. West ·
N.L. Central ·
American League
2007 National League Overview
(2006: 2006 Final Standings: NL Home games: .536; NL Away games: .442; and the N.L. was 98-154 vs A.L.) (2006 NL Projections)
(2005: 2005 Final Standings: NL Home games: .536; NL Away games: .456; and the N.L. was 116-136 vs A.L.) (2005 NL Projections)
Original posting: February 19, 2007. Last update: March 30, 2007.
National League East
1. New York Mets Willie Randolph
2007 Picks: 89 wins [Y!= 2; ESPN= 1; S&S= 2; USAT 1]
2006 Record: 97-65
2005 Record: 83-79
2004 Record: 71-91
2003 Record: 66-95
Key Players: Reyes, LoDuca, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Green; Maine, Wagner.
What needs to go right: Rotation: 'John Maine and pray for rain' isn't a winning strategy. Never write off an old guy until it's really over (examples: Nolan Ryan, Iverson, Karl Malone). However, if your playing the odds, Glavine could turn into this year's Randy Johnson.
Recap: If the Mets don't win the division, it's going to be due to a pitching meltdown. Otherwise, the Mets have a Yankees-style offense, top-to-bottom problems for opposing pitchers.
2. Philadelphia Phillies Charlie Manuel
2007 Picks: 84 wins [Y!= 1; ESPN= 2; S&S= 1; USAT 2]
2006 Record: 85-77
2005 Record: 88-74
2004 Record: 86-76
2003 Record: 86-76
Key Players: Rollins, Utley, Howard; Myers, Hamels, Garcia, Gordon.
What needs to go right: The Phillies have been steady winners for 4 straight seasons-- with nothing to show for it. It's kind of hard to envision more tough luck, but they will need solid, steady seasons from Freddy Garcia and Brett Myers, to enable the more than capable offense to deliver a post season trip.
Recap: The offense is one of the best in baseball. And a healthy full year of Aaron Rowand in the outfield could make all the difference on defense. There are two concerns: Can Ryan Howard come close to a repeat? And, can the rotation just pictch steady all season?
3. Atlanta Braves Bobby Cox
2007 Picks: 81 wins [Y!= 3; ESPN= 3; S&S= 3; USAT 3]
2006 Record: 79-83
2005 Record: 90-72
2004 Record: 96-66
2003 Record: 101-61
Key Players: Renteria, C.Jones, A.Jones; Smoltz, Hudson, Redman
What needs to go right: It's not so much that the Braves are getting much worse, it's just that the Mets and Phillies have been improving.
Recap: The run ended last year after 11 straight division titles. While it would be easy to say the Braves luck is over, the fact is the team (anchored by Andruw Jones and John Smoltz) still has the pieces to remain competitive for the division.
4. Florida Marlins Fredi Gonzalez
2007 Picks: 75 wins [Y!= 4; ESPN= 4; S&S= 4; USAT 4]
2006 Record: 78-84
2005 Record: 83-79
2004 Record: 83-79
2003 Record: 91-71
Key Players: Cabrera, Willingham; Willis
What needs to go right: A lot of players will need to come through for the Marlins to be competitive: Dontrelle Willis, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Jacobs, and the bullpen.
Recap: The Marlins had a losing season for the first time since 2002. They played in the World Series the next year. Not expecting a repeat. Just making the point that you never know with Florida. Everyone (except us) picked them to finish at the bottom of the bottom last year.
5. Washington Nationals Manny Acta
2007 Picks: 67 wins [Y!= 5; ESPN= 5; S&S= 5; USAT 5]
2006 Record: 71-91
2005 Record: 81-81
2004 Record: 67-95
2003 Record: 83-79
Key Players: Zimmerman; Cordero
What needs to go right: Where to begin. The Nats are this season's poster child for a bad team.
Recap: Take a last place team and subtract Alfonso Soriano. What do you have? A pretty long season in Washington waiting for a new stadium.
National League West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers Grady Little
2007 Picks: 88 wins [Y!= 1; ESPN= 1; S&S= 1; USAT 1]
2006 Record: 88-74
2005 Record: 71-91
2004 Record: 93-69
2003 Record: 85-77
Key Players: Pierre, Kent; Schmidt, Penny, Saito.
What needs to go right: The problems the Dodgers have this year are the types of problems most teams wish they had-- like, determining the right batting order, etc.
Recap: For an N.L. West team, the Dodgers look rock solid. The rotation and bullpen are above solid, and the top 6 spots in the batting order should mean the Dodgers take the division.
2. San Diego Padres Bud Black
2007 Picks: 82 wins [Y!= 3; ESPN= 2; S&S= 3; USAT 2]
2006 Record: 88-74
2005 Record: 82-80
2004 Record: 87-75
2003 Record: 64-98
Key Players: Greene, B.Giles, Bard; Maddux, Wells, Linebrink.
What needs to go right: Which Jake Peavy will show up this season?
Recap: The Rockies and Dodgers are improving, leaving San Diego likely on the outside looking in come playoff time.
2. Colorado Rockies Clint Hurdle
2007 Picks: 82 wins [Y!= 5; ESPN= 5; S&S= 2; USAT 4]
2006 Record: 76-86
2005 Record: 67-95
2004 Record: 68-94
2003 Record: 74-88
Key Players: Atkins, Helton.
What needs to go right: Need a Detroit Tiger style pitching revival.
Recap: Can the offense carry the Rockies to the first winning season since 2000? This is the best chance in a while, and note the Rockies jumped up to 76 wins last year.
4. San Francisco Giants Bruce Bochy
2007 Picks: 76 wins [Y!= 4; ESPN= 4; S&S= 5; USAT 5]
2006 Record: 76-85
2005 Record: 75-87
2004 Record: 91-71
2003 Record: 100-61
Key Players: Bonds; Morris.
What needs to go right: Offense will decide the Giants fate this season. And that comes down to Barry Bonds-- who we don't see playing enough to carry the team.
Recap: The Giants rotation is solid, not remarkable. It could be enough to keep the team in the hunt, but probably not competitive.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks Bob Melvin
2007 Picks: 67 wins [Y!= 2; ESPN= 3; S&S= 4; USAT 3]
2006 Record: 76-86
2005 Record: 77-85
2004 Record: 51-111
2003 Record: 84-78
Key Players: Webb.
What needs to go right: Arizona's about as close to a 1-man team (Brandon Webb) as they come.
Recap: Five or six games one way or the other usually makes a big difference in the N.L. West. But bottom line is that this year, we don't think the D'Backs have enough to be competitive.
National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals Tony La Russa
2007 Picks: 85 wins [Y!= 1; ESPN= 1; S&S= 1; USAT 1]
2006 Record: 83-78
2005 Record: 100-62
2004 Record: 105-57
2003 Record: 85-77
Key Players: Eckstein, Pujols, Rolen, Molina; Carpenter, Reyes, Isringhausen.
What needs to go right: Starting rotation rolls over; Mulder is out til July.
Recap: Any team with a bat as big as Pujols is a contender. And, Carpenter is the best starter to have around to anchor a totally revamped rotation.
2. Cincinnati Reds Jerry Narron
2007 Picks: 84 wins [Y!= 5; ESPN= 5; S&S= 5; USAT 5]
2006 Record: 80-82
2005 Record: 73-89
2004 Record: 76-86
2003 Record: 69-93
Key Players: Griffey, Dunn; Arroyo.
What needs to go right: The Reds are truly unremarkable across the board. However, they also are generally solid across the board.
Recap: Can the Reds be this year's surprise team? It's not just the 2nd place finish in the Grapefruit League that has us thinking.
3. Houston Astros Phil Garner
2007 Picks: 83 wins [Y!= 4; ESPN= 2; S&S= 4; USAT 2]
2006 Record: 82-80
2005 Record: 89-73
2004 Record: 92-70
2003 Record: 87-75
Key Players: Lee, Ensberg; Rodriquez, Wheeler.
What needs to go right: The bullpen has the talent and shouldn't be considered the liability that it is.
Recap: Inserting Carlos Lee for a full season should keep the Astros in contention.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates Jim Tracy
2007 Picks: 81 wins [Y!= 6; ESPN= 6; S&S= 6; USAT 6]
2006 Record: 67-95
2005 Record: 67-95
2004 Record: 72-89
2003 Record: 75-87
Key Players: Sanchez, Bay; Snell, Torres.
What needs to go right: More consistency is needed from guys like Jason Bay for the Pirates to be competitive.
Recap: Things should start to turn up for the Pirates this season. They probably won't be in the hunt, but they definitely have some exciting pieces that can make Pirates fans proud to rout for the team this year.
5. Chicago Cubs Lou Piniella
2007 Picks: 75 wins [Y!= 3; ESPN= 3; S&S= 2; USAT 3]
2006 Record: 66-96
2005 Record: 79-83
2004 Record: 89-73
2003 Record: 88-74
Key Players: Soriano, Ramirez.
What needs to go right: Pitching. You want to look at the Cubs pitchers and say that there really is a lot of potential there. But the evidence isn't there.
Recap: The Cubbies nearly lost 100 games last year. Is it a bit much for Cub fans to be getting their hopes up? Granted Soriano is a huge addition. And a healthy Derrick Lee makes just as big a difference. But worst to first? Probably more likely that the year Cubs fans aren't looking for it, a World Series trip will come.
6. Milwaukee Brewers Ned Yost
2007 Picks: 73 wins [Y!= 2; ESPN= 4; S&S= 3; USAT 4]
2006 Record: 75-87
2005 Record: 81-81
2004 Record: 67-94
2003 Record: 68-94
Key Players: Capuano, Suppan, Cordero.
What needs to go right: The line-up probably needs another year to develop. It's not clear where the energy will come from to score runs.
Recap: One of the best top-to-bottom rotations in baseball, and a decent bullpen. Just need the rotation to deliver to it's potential and get big performances from a few bats in the line-up. Well, that's asking a lot..
2007 picks
Fanbay.net Sports projected 2007 wins are in bold
USAT = USA Today Sports Weekly publication
ESPN = ESPN Magazine
Y! = Yahoo! Sports pick in the division by analyst Jeff Passan (and projected wins) (Yahoo! Sports picks here)
S&S = Street and Smith pick in the division (Sporting News picks according to magazine)
Key Players are the best in their division compared across the board to their peers in the division (team 'a' 3rd best pitcher compared to team 'b' 3rd best pitcher, etc). Multiple listings, if a tie is perceived. Hitters listed first, then after the ; is the pitchers.
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