2005-2006 Bowl Games, Rose Bowl, National Championship: Picks, Predictions, Stats, Data, and Analysis

Fanbay.net Sports College Football- First: Here is what our computer pick says.  Rose Bowl   Time   Teams   AP Poll    Wolfe    Sag.   Pts   PtsGU   Net   Yds   YdsGU   Net   SoS rank   Opp Avg   Proj. Scores   Line&O/U  1/4/06 8 PM Texas 2 1 1 50.92 14.58 36.33 479.7 284.3 195.4 33 46.56 33.62 -3.45 1/4/06 8 PM USC 1 2 2 50.00 21.33 28.67 540.3 333.7 206.6 20 44.86 30.17 63.79 Now for some deeper Analysis (since its the college football National Championship) We just print what our computer model spits out. The formulas do take into account Wolfe and Sagarin rankings and schedule strength. Our model says Texas by 3.5 points. And it gives a total points scored for the game (over/under) of 63.8 points. Both of these differ quite a bit from where Vegas is at now. Keep in mind that we did not assign a home field advantage to our computer model. However, USC is playing at the Rose Bowl which more than basically is a home game. Home field advantage is generally good for about 3-5 points. If you go on the lower end since technically its not really a home game then Texas is still a slight favorite by our computer. Regardless, our computer differs drastically from Vegas which has USC by 7.5 and Vegas has an O/U of 70. Here's where Vegas is at for all of the bowl games (also see lines here and matchup coverage here). Plus you can check out TradeSports for Rose Bowl odds. At the bottom of the page are a ton of extra stats. Our eyeball prediction is this. You have to keep in mind that USC is basically playing at home. How big of a factor that will be is hard to say. Looking at the statistics and charts below, we surmise this. USC has been more of a 2nd Half team this season. Texas has been all first half. But that's all history. Final score: USC 31 Texas 27. First Half: USC 21 Texas 17. Second Half: Texas 10 USC 10. Charts -- use Internet Explorer Season Game-by-game Total Points Scored for the 2006 Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns. Season Game-by-game Point Differentials for the 2006 Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns. Season Game-by-game First Half Differentials for the 2006 Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns. Season Game-by-game Second Half Differentials for the 2006 Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns. Season Game-by-game First Half Points Scored for the 2006 Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns. Season Game-by-game Second Half Points Scored for the 2006 Rose Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Texas Longhorns. Stats      Points Scored    Opp. Points    Points Diff    1st Half Pts    1st Half Opp   1st Half Diff   2nd Half Pts   2nd Half Opp   2nd Half Opp  Texas 50.9 14.6 36.3 31.5 7.3 24.2 20.8 5.9 14.8 USC 50.0 21.3 28.7 24.0 11.3 12.8 26.0 10.1 15.9 Total 100.9 35.9 55.5 18.6 46.8 16.0 Difference 0.92 -6.75 7.87 7.50 -3.92 11.42 -5.25 -4.17 -1.08 Use this link for a list of previous College Football National Champions and historical data. Visit our College Football page for all NCAA football coverage; historical data and winners; and links to stats, rankings, picks, analysis. Last update: 12/13/05